わたしの仕事がとても立て込んでいて、このブログで1か月に一度くらいの更新ペースがやっとになっているのだが、このブログで出走間隔について記事にしたり言及したりしていないことに気付いた。
記事にしてこなかったのには理由がある。
出走間隔は1か月程度がベスト、連闘など間隔が短すぎても、これ以上間隔が空いても好結果に結びつかない、ということが明らかだからだ。
書くことが少ないので、自然とトピックとして選ばなかったのである。
いつものこのブログ専用のデータベース、2006年から2014年までの中央競馬平地競走からデータを使って作表したのでご覧いただければ十分だろう。
全体のほか、性別や年齢、芝ダート、馬体重などの区分けをしてみたが、1か月程度がベスト、という結論に揺るぎはなかった。
まあ、表を眺めていただければ事足りるだろう。
▼全体表
| 出走間隔 | 完走頭数 | 勝利頭数 | 勝率 | 勝率差 |
| 7日未満 | 2678 | 166 | 6.2% | -0.8% |
| 14日未満 | 26695 | 1970 | 7.4% | +0.4% |
| 21日未満 | 74576 | 5929 | 8.0% | +1.0% |
| 28日未満 | 77261 | 6366 | 8.2% | +1.3% |
| 35日未満 | 49658 | 3634 | 7.3% | +0.4% |
| 42日未満 | 27387 | 1622 | 5.9% | -1.0% |
| 49日未満 | 18030 | 1191 | 6.6% | -0.4% |
| 56日未満 | 13174 | 836 | 6.3% | -0.6% |
| 63日未満 | 10656 | 682 | 6.4% | -0.6% |
| 70日未満 | 8937 | 562 | 6.3% | -0.7% |
| 77日未満 | 7586 | 487 | 6.4% | -0.5% |
| 84日未満 | 6632 | 431 | 6.5% | -0.5% |
| 91日未満 | 5721 | 344 | 6.0% | -0.9% |
| 98日未満 | 5182 | 296 | 5.7% | -1.2% |
| 105日未満 | 4643 | 257 | 5.5% | -1.4% |
| 112日未満 | 4124 | 244 | 5.9% | -1.0% |
| 119日未満 | 3660 | 212 | 5.8% | -1.2% |
| 126日未満 | 3348 | 194 | 5.8% | -1.2% |
| 133日未満 | 2967 | 166 | 5.6% | -1.4% |
| 140日未満 | 2685 | 149 | 5.5% | -1.4% |
| 147日未満 | 2292 | 109 | 4.8% | -2.2% |
| 154日未満 | 2047 | 96 | 4.7% | -2.3% |
| 154日以上 | 22777 | 1002 | 4.4% | -2.6% |
| 平均 | 7.0% |
▼性別
| 出走間隔 | 牡 | 勝率差 | 牝 | 勝率差 |
| 7日未満 | 6.1% | -1.5% | 6.3% | +0.4% |
| 14日未満 | 7.8% | +0.2% | 6.6% | +0.7% |
| 21日未満 | 8.6% | +1.0% | 6.8% | +0.9% |
| 28日未満 | 8.8% | +1.2% | 7.2% | +1.3% |
| 35日未満 | 8.0% | +0.4% | 6.2% | +0.3% |
| 42日未満 | 6.5% | -1.1% | 5.0% | -0.9% |
| 49日未満 | 7.2% | -0.4% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 56日未満 | 6.8% | -0.8% | 5.7% | -0.2% |
| 63日未満 | 7.3% | -0.3% | 5.2% | -0.7% |
| 70日未満 | 7.2% | -0.4% | 5.0% | -0.9% |
| 77日未満 | 7.3% | -0.3% | 5.2% | -0.7% |
| 84日未満 | 7.7% | +0.1% | 4.9% | -1.0% |
| 91日未満 | 6.8% | -0.8% | 5.0% | -0.9% |
| 98日未満 | 6.6% | -1.0% | 4.5% | -1.4% |
| 105日未満 | 6.4% | -1.2% | 4.3% | -1.6% |
| 112日未満 | 6.6% | -1.0% | 4.8% | -1.1% |
| 119日未満 | 6.9% | -0.7% | 4.0% | -1.9% |
| 126日未満 | 6.7% | -0.9% | 4.4% | -1.5% |
| 133日未満 | 6.5% | -1.1% | 4.1% | -1.8% |
| 140日未満 | 6.0% | -1.6% | 4.7% | -1.2% |
| 147日未満 | 5.1% | -2.5% | 4.2% | -1.7% |
| 154日未満 | 5.6% | -2.0% | 3.0% | -2.9% |
| 154日以上 | 4.9% | -2.7% | 3.3% | -2.6% |
| 平均 | 7.6% | 5.9% |
▼年齢別
| 出走間隔 | 2歳 | 勝率差 | 3歳 | 勝率差 | 4歳 | 勝率差 | 5歳以上 | 勝率差 |
| 7日未満 | 5.8% | -1.6% | 7.3% | +0.2% | 7.4% | -1.0% | 4.8% | +1.5% |
| 14日未満 | 7.4% | 0.0 | 8.1% | +1.0% | 8.5% | +0.1% | 3.9% | +0.7% |
| 21日未満 | 6.9% | -0.5% | 8.9% | +1.8% | 9.1% | +0.8% | 5.2% | +2.0% |
| 28日未満 | 7.8% | +0.4% | 8.8% | +1.7% | 10.2% | +1.8% | 5.7% | +2.5% |
| 35日未満 | 7.5% | +0.1% | 7.3% | +0.2% | 9.2% | +0.8% | 5.6% | +2.4% |
| 42日未満 | 7.1% | -0.3% | 5.5% | -1.6% | 7.8% | -0.6% | 5.7% | +2.5% |
| 49日未満 | 7.5% | +0.1% | 6.1% | -1.0% | 8.3% | -0.1% | 4.8% | +1.6% |
| 56日未満 | 8.1% | +0.7% | 6.3% | -0.8% | 7.2% | -1.2% | 5.9% | +2.7% |
| 63日未満 | 7.7% | +0.2% | 5.7% | -1.4% | 8.8% | +0.5% | 5.3% | +2.0% |
| 70日未満 | 8.1% | +0.7% | 6.0% | -1.1% | 7.6% | -0.8% | 5.4% | +2.2% |
| 77日未満 | 7.2% | -0.2% | 6.2% | -0.9% | 7.5% | -0.9% | 5.2% | +2.0% |
| 84日未満 | 7.6% | +0.2% | 6.5% | -0.6% | 7.7% | -0.6% | 5.7% | +2.5% |
| 91日未満 | 7.4% | 0.0 | 6.2% | -0.9% | 6.3% | -2.1% | 5.2% | +2.0% |
| 98日未満 | 6.6% | -0.8% | 5.0% | -2.1% | 7.8% | -0.6% | 5.0% | +1.8% |
| 105日未満 | 7.0% | -0.4% | 5.4% | -1.7% | 7.5% | -0.9% | 4.9% | +1.7% |
| 112日未満 | 7.0% | -0.4% | 5.1% | -2.0% | 8.2% | -0.2% | 3.6% | +0.4% |
| 119日未満 | 4.6% | -2.9% | 6.0% | -1.1% | 6.9% | -1.5% | 5.1% | +1.9% |
| 126日未満 | 4.6% | -2.9% | 5.2% | -1.9% | 8.4% | 0.0 | 4.7% | +1.5% |
| 133日未満 | 4.3% | -3.1% | 5.2% | -1.9% | 8.3% | -0.1% | 4.9% | +1.7% |
| 140日未満 | 4.5% | -2.9% | 5.4% | -1.7% | 8.6% | +0.2% | 4.2% | +1.0% |
| 147日未満 | 7.5% | +0.1% | 4.2% | -2.9% | 7.2% | -1.2% | 3.4% | +0.2% |
| 154日未満 | 7.5% | +0.1% | 4.6% | -2.5% | 7.1% | -1.3% | 3.3% | +0.1% |
| 154日以上 | 3.9% | -3.5% | 5.0% | -2.1% | 5.2% | -3.1% | 2.5% | -0.7% |
| 平均 | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 3.2% |
▼前走・今走芝・ダート別
| 出走間隔 | 前走芝今走芝 | 勝率差 | 前走ダ今走芝 | 勝率差 | 前走ダ今走芝 | 勝率差 | 前走ダ今走ダ | 勝率差 |
| 7日未満 | 5.8% | -1.8% | 5.0% | -0.3% | 2.1% | -1.3% | 7.4% | -0.1% |
| 14日未満 | 7.4% | -0.2% | 5.4% | +0.1% | 2.5% | -0.9% | 8.3% | +0.8% |
| 21日未満 | 8.0% | +0.5% | 5.1% | -0.1% | 3.5% | +0.1% | 8.8% | +1.4% |
| 28日未満 | 8.7% | +1.2% | 6.0% | +0.7% | 3.6% | +0.2% | 8.7% | +1.2% |
| 35日未満 | 8.0% | +0.4% | 5.7% | +0.4% | 3.6% | +0.1% | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| 42日未満 | 6.8% | -0.8% | 3.9% | -1.3% | 3.5% | 0.0 | 6.0% | -1.5% |
| 49日未満 | 7.7% | +0.1% | 6.0% | +0.8% | 3.8% | +0.3% | 6.2% | -1.3% |
| 56日未満 | 7.2% | -0.4% | 5.2% | -0.1% | 3.5% | 0.0 | 6.4% | -1.1% |
| 63日未満 | 7.0% | -0.5% | 5.8% | +0.5% | 3.7% | +0.3% | 6.5% | -0.9% |
| 70日未満 | 6.8% | -0.8% | 6.3% | +1.0% | 3.7% | +0.3% | 6.5% | -1.0% |
| 77日未満 | 7.4% | -0.1% | 4.2% | -1.0% | 3.0% | -0.5% | 6.9% | -0.6% |
| 84日未満 | 7.0% | -0.6% | 5.8% | +0.6% | 4.6% | +1.1% | 6.6% | -0.8% |
| 91日未満 | 6.8% | -0.8% | 5.2% | -0.1% | 4.0% | +0.6% | 6.0% | -1.5% |
| 98日未満 | 6.6% | -0.9% | 4.4% | -0.9% | 3.7% | +0.3% | 5.7% | -1.8% |
| 105日未満 | 5.7% | -1.9% | 5.6% | +0.4% | 4.7% | +1.3% | 5.6% | -1.9% |
| 112日未満 | 6.7% | -0.9% | 5.6% | +0.4% | 3.8% | +0.3% | 5.7% | -1.8% |
| 119日未満 | 7.2% | -0.4% | 3.9% | -1.4% | 3.6% | +0.1% | 5.5% | -2.0% |
| 126日未満 | 7.0% | -0.6% | 2.8% | -2.5% | 3.1% | -0.3% | 6.0% | -1.5% |
| 133日未満 | 6.4% | -1.2% | 5.7% | +0.5% | 2.5% | -0.9% | 5.5% | -2.0% |
| 140日未満 | 4.6% | -3.0% | 5.2% | -0.1% | 3.6% | +0.2% | 7.2% | -0.3% |
| 147日未満 | 5.2% | -2.4% | 4.4% | -0.8% | 4.6% | +1.1% | 4.4% | -3.1% |
| 154日未満 | 4.5% | -3.1% | 5.1% | -0.2% | 2.1% | -1.4% | 5.2% | -2.2% |
| 154日以上 | 4.9% | -2.7% | 4.4% | -0.9% | 2.3% | -1.1% | 4.3% | -3.2% |
| 平均 | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 7.5% |
▼馬体重別
| 出走間隔 | 400kg未満 | 勝率差 | 420kg未満 | 勝率差 | 440kg未満 | 勝率差 | 460kg未満 | 勝率差 | 480kg未満 | 勝率差 | 500kg未満 | 勝率差 | 520kg未満 | 勝率差 | 540kg以上 | 勝率差 |
| 7日未満 | 2.1% | -1.0% | 6.2% | +1.5% | 4.7% | -1.3% | 5.9% | -1.3% | 7.6% | -0.4% | 6.5% | -2.2% | 10.7% | +1.8% | 6.3% | -2.0% |
| 14日未満 | 2.4% | -0.6% | 4.5% | -0.2% | 6.5% | +0.5% | 7.8% | +0.6% | 8.4% | +0.4% | 8.8% | +0.1% | 8.8% | -0.2% | 10.7% | +2.5% |
| 21日未満 | 4.0% | +1.0% | 5.4% | +0.7% | 6.8% | +0.8% | 8.1% | +0.8% | 8.9% | +0.9% | 9.9% | +1.2% | 11.6% | +2.6% | 11.0% | +2.7% |
| 28日未満 | 3.8% | +0.7% | 5.7% | +0.9% | 7.5% | +1.5% | 8.6% | +1.3% | 9.4% | +1.3% | 10.2% | +1.4% | 9.9% | +0.9% | 9.2% | +0.9% |
| 35日未満 | 3.5% | +0.5% | 5.0% | +0.3% | 6.5% | +0.5% | 7.7% | +0.5% | 8.6% | +0.5% | 8.7% | 0.0 | 8.6% | -0.4% | 7.5% | -0.8% |
| 42日未満 | 2.5% | -0.5% | 4.3% | -0.4% | 5.2% | -0.8% | 5.9% | -1.4% | 7.2% | -0.9% | 7.5% | -1.2% | 6.8% | -2.1% | 8.4% | +0.1% |
| 49日未満 | 2.7% | -0.4% | 4.4% | -0.3% | 5.7% | -0.3% | 7.1% | -0.1% | 7.2% | -0.9% | 8.3% | -0.4% | 11.5% | +2.5% | 7.4% | -0.9% |
| 56日未満 | 3.6% | +0.6% | 4.3% | -0.4% | 5.1% | -0.9% | 7.3% | 0.0 | 7.0% | -1.0% | 8.2% | -0.5% | 7.7% | -1.2% | 8.5% | +0.2% |
| 63日未満 | 2.2% | -0.9% | 4.2% | -0.5% | 4.7% | -1.3% | 6.8% | -0.5% | 8.0% | 0.0 | 8.6% | -0.1% | 10.0% | +1.1% | 6.4% | -1.9% |
| 70日未満 | 2.3% | -0.7% | 4.0% | -0.7% | 5.2% | -0.8% | 6.3% | -1.0% | 8.1% | +0.1% | 8.4% | -0.3% | 8.7% | -0.2% | 4.7% | -3.6% |
| 77日未満 | 2.0% | -1.0% | 5.0% | +0.3% | 4.6% | -1.3% | 6.5% | -0.8% | 7.8% | -0.2% | 10.2% | +1.4% | 6.7% | -2.3% | 8.8% | +0.5% |
| 84日未満 | 3.5% | +0.4% | 3.7% | -1.0% | 6.3% | +0.3% | 5.4% | -1.9% | 7.9% | -0.1% | 9.3% | +0.5% | 11.0% | +2.0% | 5.6% | -2.7% |
| 91日未満 | 1.9% | -1.1% | 3.9% | -0.8% | 5.3% | -0.7% | 5.7% | -1.6% | 7.2% | -0.8% | 9.0% | +0.3% | 6.2% | -2.8% | 14.1% | +5.8% |
| 98日未満 | 1.0% | -2.0% | 3.4% | -1.3% | 3.7% | -2.2% | 6.9% | -0.3% | 6.5% | -1.5% | 6.7% | -2.0% | 11.8% | +2.8% | 4.0% | -4.3% |
| 105日未満 | 3.4% | +0.4% | 2.5% | -2.2% | 4.0% | -1.9% | 5.6% | -1.7% | 7.7% | -0.3% | 6.6% | -2.1% | 9.3% | +0.3% | 3.6% | -4.6% |
| 112日未満 | 2.2% | -0.8% | 2.5% | -2.2% | 4.5% | -1.5% | 7.1% | -0.2% | 6.7% | -1.3% | 6.5% | -2.2% | 8.7% | -0.3% | 11.8% | +3.5% |
| 119日未満 | 0.8% | -2.2% | 3.3% | -1.5% | 5.0% | -1.0% | 6.2% | -1.0% | 6.6% | -1.4% | 7.9% | -0.8% | 5.4% | -3.6% | 7.0% | -1.3% |
| 126日未満 | 2.7% | -0.3% | 2.4% | -2.3% | 4.9% | -1.1% | 6.5% | -0.7% | 6.5% | -1.5% | 7.8% | -0.9% | 4.4% | -4.5% | 12.8% | +4.5% |
| 133日未満 | 1.1% | -1.9% | 2.8% | -1.9% | 3.3% | -2.7% | 5.4% | -1.8% | 7.9% | -0.1% | 8.7% | 0.0 | 4.4% | -4.6% | 4.9% | -3.4% |
| 140日未満 | 0.0% | -3.0% | 2.6% | -2.1% | 5.5% | -0.5% | 4.4% | -2.9% | 7.1% | -0.9% | 8.2% | -0.5% | 5.2% | -3.7% | 8.1% | -0.2% |
| 147日未満 | 1.2% | -1.8% | 2.5% | -2.2% | 4.1% | -1.9% | 6.2% | -1.1% | 5.5% | -2.5% | 4.5% | -4.2% | 2.5% | -6.5% | 5.9% | -2.4% |
| 154日未満 | 0.0% | -3.0% | 0.6% | -4.1% | 3.2% | -2.8% | 4.6% | -2.7% | 6.7% | -1.4% | 6.6% | -2.1% | 4.7% | -4.2% | 8.6% | +0.3% |
| 154日以上 | 0.6% | -2.5% | 1.7% | -3.1% | 2.5% | -3.5% | 4.2% | -3.0% | 5.1% | -2.9% | 6.0% | -2.7% | 7.0% | -2.0% | 5.8% | -2.4% |
| 平均 | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% |
(SiriusA+B)
