▼枠順の有利不利
予想ファクターを模索していると、どのファクターでもほぼ同じくらいの影響を持つように感じるときがある。
そのひとつ、枠順は、まったく気にしない人もいれば、重要なファクターだとする人もいる、評価が分かれるファクターかもしれない。
わたしは過去に統計のツールを使って影響度を研究したことがあった。
結論は、「影響はあるが、強い影響ではなく、考慮する/しないによる差異は小さい」というものであり、今もそう考えている。
例えば、このブログの初期には、「外枠はやはり不利」だと考えていたが、繰り返し精査する中で、それほど不利があるわけではないことも分かってきた。
ここに、16頭が出走(不完走馬も含む。出走取り消しなどによって結果的に16頭立てになった競走を含む。障害競走を除く)した競走約15,500レースで、馬番による有利不利を観測しようとしたデータがある。
凸凹しているが、内でも外でも、それほど有利不利はないと思われる。
やや外枠不利かと思うが、大外枠は自由度が高いのか、不利どころか若干有利であることは分かっている。
また、奇数枠・偶数枠でも有意な差がある。
頭数を揃えて分析すると、そういうことも理解できるのである。
今夜は、このブログお得意の単勝支持率(単勝オッズの逆数、1/オッズ×4/5)を用いて、実際の勝率との差を求めた。
なお、それほど影響はないが、支持率は各レースで100%になるよう微修正を施している。
これにより、枠順の差をオッズがどれほど取り込んでいるのか、調べることができるのではないかと考えた。
この分析で1,000レースを超えるコースはひとつしかなかったので、コースごとのデータは記載した数字より少し甘く考えてもらいたい。
▼内外より奇数偶数
全体的には、支持率と勝率に大きな乖離はなく、オッズには枠順の影響を反映しているのだろうという推論ができそうだ。
ある馬番で、支持率が15%なのにその馬番の勝率が20%であれば、絶対に買う。
そう意気込んだのだが、集合知は優れていて、最大でも0.5ポイント程度の差しかない。
オッズには枠順が織り込まれているということだ。
細かく言えば、馬番1番ではオッズほど勝てない(わずかだが)ことが分かる。
しかし、奇数枠と偶数枠に分けてみると、奇数枠では支持率よりも勝率が高く、偶数枠では支持率よりも勝率が低いということが明らかになった。
これは何を意味するかというと、予想者が「内枠外枠は気にしているけれど、奇数枠か偶数枠かはあまり考慮していない、オッズに織り込まれていない」ということなのである。
つまり、オイシイ馬券になる(極めてわずかだが)ということなのだ。
このブログでは何度か示しているけれど、競馬予想者の多くは奇数枠や偶数枠をほとんど考慮していないということを示す。
「オッズとの乖離」が勝利への道なのでこれはいいニュースなのだが、残念ながら、その差異は極めて小さく、必勝法というほどにはならない。
コース別ではサンプルが少ないので参考にならないが、1,000レース以上ある中山ダート1200では同じ傾向を示した。
(SiriusA+B)
▼図表377-1 出走頭数16頭の中央競馬平地競走の馬番別平均支持率と勝率、その差
| 項目 |
|
全体 |
福島芝 |
中山芝外 |
小倉芝 |
福島芝 |
函館芝 |
福島芝 |
札幌芝 |
中山芝外 |
東京芝 |
|
|
|
1200 |
1600 |
1800 |
1800 |
1200 |
2000 |
1200 |
1200 |
1600 |
| 競走回数 |
|
15,559 |
599 |
446 |
269 |
243 |
213 |
202 |
168 |
156 |
155 |
| 平均支持率 |
馬番01 |
6.42% |
6.43% |
6.94% |
6.55% |
6.54% |
6.66% |
7.27% |
6.67% |
7.71% |
6.92% |
|
馬番03 |
6.24% |
6.67% |
6.61% |
6.59% |
6.96% |
6.72% |
6.48% |
5.72% |
7.05% |
6.04% |
|
馬番05 |
6.22% |
6.57% |
6.29% |
6.50% |
6.76% |
6.10% |
6.51% |
7.08% |
6.46% |
6.87% |
|
馬番07 |
6.36% |
6.63% |
6.44% |
6.18% |
5.60% |
5.75% |
7.24% |
6.24% |
6.08% |
7.78% |
|
馬番09 |
6.25% |
6.11% |
6.38% |
5.95% |
6.07% |
6.13% |
6.67% |
5.82% |
6.24% |
7.53% |
|
馬番11 |
6.15% |
5.91% |
6.20% |
5.89% |
6.54% |
6.35% |
6.03% |
5.02% |
7.03% |
6.20% |
|
馬番13 |
6.10% |
5.69% |
5.89% |
6.70% |
6.68% |
5.80% |
5.99% |
6.03% |
5.30% |
5.81% |
|
馬番15 |
6.04% |
5.89% |
5.14% |
5.80% |
5.87% |
4.79% |
5.54% |
6.10% |
5.61% |
6.20% |
|
馬番02 |
6.40% |
6.41% |
7.32% |
6.42% |
7.16% |
7.25% |
7.41% |
6.36% |
6.23% |
6.48% |
|
馬番04 |
6.39% |
6.33% |
7.31% |
6.15% |
7.44% |
7.74% |
6.80% |
6.75% |
6.34% |
6.02% |
|
馬番06 |
6.29% |
6.69% |
6.33% |
6.56% |
5.76% |
6.84% |
5.73% |
6.26% |
5.69% |
6.03% |
|
馬番08 |
6.32% |
5.97% |
6.80% |
6.34% |
6.15% |
6.39% |
7.28% |
6.33% |
6.69% |
5.96% |
|
馬番10 |
6.35% |
5.57% |
5.95% |
6.31% |
5.57% |
6.17% |
5.69% |
7.43% |
6.04% |
5.16% |
|
馬番12 |
6.20% |
6.15% |
5.97% |
5.73% |
6.38% |
6.65% |
5.18% |
5.79% |
5.74% |
6.17% |
|
馬番14 |
6.10% |
5.97% |
5.36% |
5.73% |
5.58% |
5.30% |
5.42% |
7.20% |
5.88% |
5.29% |
|
馬番16 |
6.16% |
7.00% |
5.08% |
6.61% |
4.93% |
5.36% |
4.76% |
5.22% |
5.90% |
5.54% |
| 勝率 |
馬番01 |
5.98% |
6.29% |
6.05% |
6.18% |
7.43% |
5.39% |
6.83% |
7.92% |
5.95% |
5.77% |
|
馬番03 |
5.95% |
6.29% |
6.73% |
7.35% |
4.83% |
6.22% |
7.32% |
4.95% |
8.33% |
3.85% |
|
馬番05 |
5.89% |
5.70% |
5.61% |
5.01% |
7.06% |
5.81% |
5.37% |
8.42% |
8.33% |
5.13% |
|
馬番07 |
6.12% |
8.45% |
6.28% |
6.51% |
5.58% |
5.81% |
6.83% |
4.46% |
2.38% |
7.69% |
|
馬番09 |
6.16% |
4.32% |
4.48% |
5.84% |
7.06% |
3.32% |
5.85% |
8.42% |
5.36% |
8.97% |
|
馬番11 |
6.08% |
5.89% |
8.07% |
6.34% |
4.46% |
6.64% |
9.76% |
4.95% |
7.74% |
8.97% |
|
馬番13 |
5.89% |
5.30% |
4.04% |
6.68% |
5.58% |
4.56% |
3.41% |
4.46% |
7.14% |
3.85% |
|
馬番15 |
6.13% |
6.68% |
3.81% |
4.84% |
7.06% |
4.15% |
3.41% |
6.93% |
5.36% |
8.97% |
|
馬番02 |
6.38% |
7.07% |
8.52% |
6.84% |
8.18% |
5.81% |
11.71% |
5.94% |
4.76% |
7.69% |
|
馬番04 |
6.79% |
5.11% |
6.50% |
6.51% |
9.29% |
5.81% |
7.32% |
8.91% |
7.74% |
4.49% |
|
馬番06 |
6.18% |
6.48% |
7.17% |
5.84% |
5.58% |
7.05% |
7.32% |
6.93% |
8.33% |
5.77% |
|
馬番08 |
6.64% |
7.47% |
9.19% |
6.84% |
5.95% |
10.79% |
7.32% |
6.93% |
7.74% |
5.77% |
|
馬番10 |
6.90% |
6.48% |
6.05% |
7.51% |
5.58% |
7.05% |
4.88% |
6.44% |
4.17% |
6.41% |
|
馬番12 |
6.37% |
6.48% |
4.71% |
4.84% |
6.69% |
5.81% |
3.41% |
5.94% |
5.36% |
11.54% |
|
馬番14 |
6.05% |
5.50% |
6.73% |
5.34% |
5.58% |
9.13% |
3.90% |
6.44% |
4.17% |
1.92% |
|
馬番16 |
6.59% |
6.48% |
6.28% |
7.85% |
4.09% |
6.64% |
5.85% |
2.48% |
7.14% |
3.21% |
| 差異 |
馬番01 |
0.44% |
0.15% |
0.88% |
0.38% |
▲0.90% |
1.26% |
0.44% |
▲1.26% |
1.76% |
1.15% |
|
馬番03 |
0.29% |
0.38% |
▲0.12% |
▲0.76% |
2.13% |
0.49% |
▲0.84% |
0.77% |
▲1.28% |
2.19% |
|
馬番05 |
0.33% |
0.88% |
0.68% |
1.49% |
▲0.30% |
0.29% |
1.14% |
▲1.34% |
▲1.87% |
1.74% |
|
馬番07 |
0.25% |
▲1.82% |
0.16% |
▲0.34% |
0.03% |
▲0.05% |
0.41% |
1.78% |
3.70% |
0.09% |
|
馬番09 |
0.09% |
1.79% |
1.90% |
0.11% |
▲0.99% |
2.81% |
0.82% |
▲2.60% |
0.89% |
▲1.45% |
|
馬番11 |
0.07% |
0.02% |
▲1.87% |
▲0.46% |
2.08% |
▲0.28% |
▲3.73% |
0.07% |
▲0.70% |
▲2.78% |
|
馬番13 |
0.21% |
0.39% |
1.85% |
0.02% |
1.11% |
1.24% |
2.57% |
1.57% |
▲1.84% |
1.97% |
|
馬番15 |
▲0.10% |
▲0.79% |
1.33% |
0.95% |
▲1.19% |
0.64% |
2.13% |
▲0.83% |
0.26% |
▲2.77% |
|
馬番02 |
0.02% |
▲0.66% |
▲1.20% |
▲0.42% |
▲1.02% |
1.44% |
▲4.30% |
0.42% |
1.47% |
▲1.21% |
|
馬番04 |
▲0.40% |
1.22% |
0.81% |
▲0.36% |
▲1.85% |
1.93% |
▲0.52% |
▲2.16% |
▲1.40% |
1.53% |
|
馬番06 |
0.11% |
0.21% |
▲0.85% |
0.72% |
0.18% |
▲0.22% |
▲1.59% |
▲0.67% |
▲2.65% |
0.26% |
|
馬番08 |
▲0.32% |
▲1.50% |
▲2.39% |
▲0.51% |
0.20% |
▲4.40% |
▲0.04% |
▲0.60% |
▲1.05% |
0.20% |
|
馬番10 |
▲0.55% |
▲0.91% |
▲0.10% |
▲1.20% |
▲0.01% |
▲0.89% |
0.81% |
0.99% |
1.88% |
▲1.25% |
|
馬番12 |
▲0.17% |
▲0.33% |
1.26% |
0.89% |
▲0.32% |
0.84% |
1.77% |
▲0.16% |
0.38% |
▲5.37% |
|
馬番14 |
0.04% |
0.47% |
▲1.37% |
0.39% |
0.01% |
▲3.83% |
1.52% |
0.76% |
1.71% |
3.37% |
|
馬番16 |
▲0.43% |
0.52% |
▲1.20% |
▲1.24% |
0.84% |
▲1.28% |
▲1.10% |
2.74% |
▲1.24% |
2.34% |
| 項目 |
|
中山ダ |
中山ダ |
東京ダ |
東京ダ |
阪神ダ |
京都ダ |
京都ダ |
阪神ダ |
小倉ダ |
阪神ダ |
|
|
1200 |
1800 |
1400 |
1600 |
1400 |
1400 |
1200 |
1800 |
1700 |
1200 |
| 競走回数 |
|
1,228 |
902 |
849 |
824 |
609 |
599 |
575 |
548 |
543 |
509 |
| 平均支持率 |
馬番01 |
6.42% |
6.18% |
6.30% |
6.76% |
5.96% |
6.16% |
5.70% |
6.43% |
5.77% |
6.77% |
|
馬番03 |
6.24% |
5.89% |
6.31% |
5.89% |
5.73% |
5.87% |
6.48% |
5.40% |
6.06% |
6.82% |
|
馬番05 |
6.22% |
5.92% |
5.78% |
6.36% |
5.87% |
6.92% |
5.75% |
6.62% |
5.73% |
6.41% |
|
馬番07 |
6.36% |
6.19% |
5.89% |
6.46% |
7.10% |
6.78% |
6.38% |
6.08% |
6.65% |
5.61% |
|
馬番09 |
6.25% |
5.83% |
6.65% |
6.42% |
5.79% |
6.53% |
6.62% |
5.90% |
5.58% |
6.42% |
|
馬番11 |
6.15% |
6.26% |
6.12% |
5.75% |
6.68% |
5.84% |
6.29% |
6.35% |
5.81% |
7.06% |
|
馬番13 |
6.10% |
6.19% |
6.58% |
5.79% |
6.05% |
6.17% |
6.32% |
6.18% |
6.49% |
6.04% |
|
馬番15 |
6.04% |
6.60% |
6.09% |
6.33% |
6.39% |
6.27% |
6.00% |
5.87% |
6.26% |
5.52% |
|
馬番02 |
6.40% |
5.94% |
6.20% |
6.05% |
5.36% |
5.85% |
6.31% |
6.64% |
6.60% |
7.08% |
|
馬番04 |
6.39% |
6.14% |
6.13% |
6.08% |
6.05% |
6.63% |
6.09% |
5.86% |
6.39% |
5.52% |
|
馬番06 |
6.29% |
5.55% |
5.93% |
6.25% |
6.57% |
6.20% |
6.90% |
6.08% |
6.82% |
5.46% |
|
馬番08 |
6.32% |
6.37% |
6.79% |
6.22% |
6.53% |
6.22% |
5.92% |
6.52% |
6.51% |
6.64% |
|
馬番10 |
6.35% |
6.45% |
6.42% |
6.51% |
6.72% |
6.32% |
6.50% |
6.86% |
6.76% |
6.55% |
|
馬番12 |
6.20% |
6.58% |
6.30% |
6.39% |
6.31% |
6.42% |
6.30% |
6.49% |
6.22% |
5.86% |
|
馬番14 |
6.10% |
6.64% |
6.17% |
6.44% |
6.33% |
6.22% |
6.29% |
5.95% |
6.10% |
5.99% |
|
馬番16 |
6.16% |
7.28% |
6.33% |
6.30% |
6.57% |
5.60% |
6.13% |
6.77% |
6.23% |
6.26% |
| 勝率 |
馬番01 |
5.98% |
6.27% |
5.43% |
6.60% |
4.49% |
4.93% |
6.01% |
6.09% |
6.75% |
6.63% |
|
馬番03 |
5.95% |
4.48% |
6.65% |
6.36% |
4.61% |
6.24% |
6.18% |
4.52% |
6.75% |
7.00% |
|
馬番05 |
5.89% |
6.11% |
5.43% |
5.65% |
5.10% |
6.90% |
5.18% |
6.96% |
4.01% |
5.16% |
|
馬番07 |
6.12% |
5.62% |
6.43% |
4.36% |
7.16% |
4.76% |
7.01% |
6.26% |
6.39% |
5.89% |
|
馬番09 |
6.16% |
5.54% |
6.43% |
7.30% |
7.28% |
7.22% |
7.18% |
5.39% |
4.56% |
7.18% |
|
馬番11 |
6.08% |
7.17% |
6.21% |
4.71% |
7.40% |
6.57% |
5.18% |
7.13% |
5.47% |
6.08% |
|
馬番13 |
5.89% |
5.78% |
7.10% |
5.42% |
6.19% |
6.08% |
5.84% |
5.74% |
7.30% |
4.97% |
|
馬番15 |
6.13% |
8.06% |
6.21% |
6.83% |
7.65% |
5.75% |
4.34% |
5.74% |
6.39% |
4.79% |
|
馬番02 |
6.38% |
5.29% |
4.88% |
5.18% |
3.76% |
6.24% |
7.18% |
4.87% |
6.02% |
7.55% |
|
馬番04 |
6.79% |
5.78% |
5.32% |
7.07% |
4.98% |
6.73% |
6.51% |
6.96% |
5.11% |
5.89% |
|
馬番06 |
6.18% |
4.80% |
4.99% |
6.71% |
7.04% |
4.60% |
6.84% |
5.22% |
8.58% |
4.79% |
|
馬番08 |
6.64% |
6.68% |
7.76% |
6.24% |
7.28% |
5.09% |
5.18% |
5.91% |
7.12% |
7.00% |
|
馬番10 |
6.90% |
7.41% |
7.21% |
6.83% |
7.77% |
7.88% |
7.68% |
8.87% |
6.57% |
8.66% |
|
馬番12 |
6.37% |
6.84% |
6.98% |
6.60% |
5.95% |
6.90% |
7.68% |
6.26% |
6.20% |
5.52% |
|
馬番14 |
6.05% |
6.60% |
6.32% |
6.71% |
5.95% |
7.72% |
6.18% |
5.74% |
5.84% |
7.18% |
|
馬番16 |
6.59% |
7.74% |
6.76% |
7.42% |
7.40% |
6.57% |
5.84% |
8.35% |
6.93% |
5.89% |
| 差異 |
馬番01 |
0.44% |
▲0.09% |
0.87% |
0.16% |
1.47% |
1.24% |
▲0.31% |
0.35% |
▲0.98% |
0.14% |
|
馬番03 |
0.29% |
1.41% |
▲0.34% |
▲0.47% |
1.12% |
▲0.37% |
0.30% |
0.88% |
▲0.69% |
▲0.18% |
|
馬番05 |
0.33% |
▲0.19% |
0.34% |
0.70% |
0.78% |
0.02% |
0.57% |
▲0.34% |
1.71% |
1.25% |
|
馬番07 |
0.25% |
0.57% |
▲0.54% |
2.10% |
▲0.06% |
2.02% |
▲0.63% |
▲0.18% |
0.26% |
▲0.28% |
|
馬番09 |
0.09% |
0.30% |
0.22% |
▲0.89% |
▲1.50% |
▲0.70% |
▲0.56% |
0.51% |
1.02% |
▲0.76% |
|
馬番11 |
0.07% |
▲0.90% |
▲0.09% |
1.04% |
▲0.72% |
▲0.73% |
1.12% |
▲0.78% |
0.34% |
0.99% |
|
馬番13 |
0.21% |
0.40% |
▲0.51% |
0.37% |
▲0.14% |
0.10% |
0.48% |
0.44% |
▲0.80% |
1.07% |
|
馬番15 |
▲0.10% |
▲1.47% |
▲0.12% |
▲0.50% |
▲1.25% |
0.53% |
1.66% |
0.13% |
▲0.13% |
0.73% |
|
馬番02 |
0.02% |
0.65% |
1.32% |
0.87% |
1.60% |
▲0.39% |
▲0.87% |
1.77% |
0.58% |
▲0.48% |
|
馬番04 |
▲0.40% |
0.36% |
0.80% |
▲0.99% |
1.07% |
▲0.10% |
▲0.42% |
▲1.10% |
1.28% |
▲0.38% |
|
馬番06 |
0.11% |
0.75% |
0.94% |
▲0.47% |
▲0.47% |
1.60% |
0.06% |
0.86% |
▲1.75% |
0.67% |
|
馬番08 |
▲0.32% |
▲0.31% |
▲0.97% |
▲0.02% |
▲0.75% |
1.13% |
0.75% |
0.61% |
▲0.61% |
▲0.36% |
|
馬番10 |
▲0.55% |
▲0.96% |
▲0.78% |
▲0.32% |
▲1.05% |
▲1.56% |
▲1.18% |
▲2.01% |
0.19% |
▲2.10% |
|
馬番12 |
▲0.17% |
▲0.26% |
▲0.68% |
▲0.20% |
0.36% |
▲0.47% |
▲1.38% |
0.23% |
0.02% |
0.33% |
|
馬番14 |
0.04% |
0.04% |
▲0.15% |
▲0.27% |
0.38% |
▲1.50% |
0.12% |
0.21% |
0.27% |
▲1.19% |
|
馬番16 |
▲0.43% |
▲0.46% |
▲0.44% |
▲1.12% |
▲0.83% |
▲0.96% |
0.28% |
▲1.58% |
▲0.70% |
0.37% |
