何度調べてもよく分からないのが馬番の有利不利である。
きっと、わたしが、競馬場やコースの差異が影響しているのを端折っているからだとは分かっている。
どうしても、出走頭数別にするだけでも細分化されるので、これ以上細かくしないで傾向を調べたいという思いがあるのだ。
ただ、出走頭数別にしてもきちんとしていなかったこともあるので、今回は2011-2023年で精査してみた。
出走取消や競走除外がなく全馬出走したもので(競走中止は含む)、12頭立て以上で頭数別馬番別に調べた。
さらに、芝とダートも分けている。
皆さんがどう考えるかは別として、馬番による有利不利には諸説あってはっきりしないが、それほど予想に影響はない、というのがわたしの考えである。
馬番の偶数と奇数の差は、明確にある。
これは以前からこのブログで取り上げてきた。
図表465-1も偶数と奇数に分けている(ついでに出走頭数も偶数と奇数別にしている)。
問題は、内枠と外枠である。
コースで差があることは、ここでは考慮していない。
今回、うすぼんやりと考えたのは、芝は内枠有利で、ダートは外枠有利なのかもしれないということだ。
そんなことあるかな、と思いながら眺めるのだが、なんとなくそう感じた次第である。
芝はスピードの問題、ダートは道中の消耗つまりスタミナの問題、が関わってくるのだろうか。
▼オッズにはあまり組み込まれていないようだ
それほど予想に影響はない、と言いながら、少し気になっている点がある。
それはオッズに馬番の有利不利があまり織り込まれていないのではないか、という可能性である。
図表465-2は馬番別の勝率と支持率を比較したものだ。
サンプル数の問題である可能性を否定できないが、勝率と支持率はあまり差のないものなのに、この資料ではわたしが想定していたよりも差が出た。
オッズに織り込まれていないものは収益の源泉である。
もう少し研究したいところだが、今日は時間切れだ。
(SiriusA+B)
(図表465-1)出走頭数・芝ダート別馬番別の勝率、平均差(平均差とは12頭立てなら1/12を平均とした差異)
出走頭数 | 馬番設定頭数 | 馬番 | 芝勝利数 | 芝出走数 | 芝勝率 | 芝平均差 | ダ勝利数 | ダ出走数 | ダ勝率 | ダ平均差 |
12 | 12 | 1 | 148 | 1,612 | 9.2% | 0.8% | 100 | 1,522 | 6.6% | -1.8% |
12 | 12 | 3 | 133 | 1,612 | 8.3% | -0.1% | 114 | 1,522 | 7.5% | -0.8% |
12 | 12 | 5 | 111 | 1,612 | 6.9% | -1.4% | 113 | 1,522 | 7.4% | -0.9% |
12 | 12 | 7 | 125 | 1,612 | 7.8% | -0.6% | 119 | 1,522 | 7.8% | -0.5% |
12 | 12 | 9 | 155 | 1,612 | 9.6% | 1.3% | 129 | 1,522 | 8.5% | 0.1% |
12 | 12 | 11 | 130 | 1,612 | 8.1% | -0.3% | 134 | 1,522 | 8.8% | 0.5% |
12 | 12 | 2 | 133 | 1,612 | 8.3% | -0.1% | 126 | 1,522 | 8.3% | -0.1% |
12 | 12 | 4 | 129 | 1,612 | 8.0% | -0.3% | 133 | 1,522 | 8.7% | 0.4% |
12 | 12 | 6 | 148 | 1,612 | 9.2% | 0.8% | 127 | 1,522 | 8.3% | 0.0% |
12 | 12 | 8 | 132 | 1,612 | 8.2% | -0.1% | 146 | 1,522 | 9.6% | 1.3% |
12 | 12 | 10 | 141 | 1,612 | 8.7% | 0.4% | 140 | 1,522 | 9.2% | 0.9% |
12 | 12 | 12 | 132 | 1,612 | 8.2% | -0.1% | 143 | 1,522 | 9.4% | 1.1% |
14 | 14 | 1 | 122 | 1,693 | 7.2% | 0.1% | 132 | 1,918 | 6.9% | -0.3% |
14 | 14 | 3 | 135 | 1,693 | 8.0% | 0.8% | 127 | 1,918 | 6.6% | -0.5% |
14 | 14 | 5 | 119 | 1,693 | 7.0% | -0.1% | 114 | 1,918 | 5.9% | -1.2% |
14 | 14 | 7 | 132 | 1,693 | 7.8% | 0.7% | 137 | 1,918 | 7.1% | 0.0% |
14 | 14 | 9 | 108 | 1,693 | 6.4% | -0.8% | 129 | 1,918 | 6.7% | -0.4% |
14 | 14 | 11 | 101 | 1,693 | 6.0% | -1.2% | 127 | 1,918 | 6.6% | -0.5% |
14 | 14 | 13 | 110 | 1,693 | 6.5% | -0.6% | 155 | 1,918 | 8.1% | 0.9% |
14 | 14 | 2 | 148 | 1,693 | 8.7% | 1.6% | 127 | 1,918 | 6.6% | -0.5% |
14 | 14 | 4 | 114 | 1,693 | 6.7% | -0.4% | 153 | 1,918 | 8.0% | 0.8% |
14 | 14 | 6 | 128 | 1,693 | 7.6% | 0.4% | 137 | 1,918 | 7.1% | 0.0% |
14 | 14 | 8 | 142 | 1,693 | 8.4% | 1.2% | 134 | 1,918 | 7.0% | -0.2% |
14 | 14 | 10 | 102 | 1,693 | 6.0% | -1.1% | 150 | 1,918 | 7.8% | 0.7% |
14 | 14 | 12 | 125 | 1,693 | 7.4% | 0.2% | 149 | 1,918 | 7.8% | 0.6% |
14 | 14 | 14 | 110 | 1,693 | 6.5% | -0.6% | 151 | 1,918 | 7.9% | 0.7% |
16 | 16 | 1 | 319 | 5,092 | 6.3% | 0.0% | 569 | 9,891 | 5.8% | -0.5% |
16 | 16 | 3 | 317 | 5,092 | 6.2% | 0.0% | 575 | 9,891 | 5.8% | -0.4% |
16 | 16 | 5 | 322 | 5,092 | 6.3% | 0.1% | 557 | 9,891 | 5.6% | -0.6% |
16 | 16 | 7 | 274 | 5,092 | 5.4% | -0.9% | 596 | 9,891 | 6.0% | -0.2% |
16 | 16 | 9 | 317 | 5,092 | 6.2% | 0.0% | 612 | 9,891 | 6.2% | -0.1% |
16 | 16 | 11 | 308 | 5,092 | 6.0% | -0.2% | 631 | 9,891 | 6.4% | 0.1% |
16 | 16 | 13 | 296 | 5,092 | 5.8% | -0.4% | 596 | 9,891 | 6.0% | -0.2% |
16 | 16 | 15 | 289 | 5,092 | 5.7% | -0.6% | 636 | 9,891 | 6.4% | 0.2% |
16 | 16 | 2 | 356 | 5,092 | 7.0% | 0.7% | 611 | 9,891 | 6.2% | -0.1% |
16 | 16 | 4 | 368 | 5,092 | 7.2% | 1.0% | 621 | 9,891 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
16 | 16 | 6 | 350 | 5,092 | 6.9% | 0.6% | 608 | 9,891 | 6.1% | -0.1% |
16 | 16 | 8 | 331 | 5,092 | 6.5% | 0.3% | 630 | 9,891 | 6.4% | 0.1% |
16 | 16 | 10 | 319 | 5,092 | 6.3% | 0.0% | 663 | 9,891 | 6.7% | 0.5% |
16 | 16 | 12 | 325 | 5,092 | 6.4% | 0.1% | 680 | 9,891 | 6.9% | 0.6% |
16 | 16 | 14 | 308 | 5,092 | 6.0% | -0.2% | 617 | 9,891 | 6.2% | 0.0% |
16 | 16 | 16 | 297 | 5,092 | 5.8% | -0.4% | 697 | 9,891 | 7.0% | 0.8% |
18 | 18 | 1 | 211 | 3,430 | 6.2% | 0.6% | ||||
18 | 18 | 3 | 182 | 3,430 | 5.3% | -0.2% | ||||
18 | 18 | 5 | 211 | 3,430 | 6.2% | 0.6% | ||||
18 | 18 | 7 | 198 | 3,430 | 5.8% | 0.2% | ||||
18 | 18 | 9 | 177 | 3,430 | 5.2% | -0.4% | ||||
18 | 18 | 11 | 172 | 3,430 | 5.0% | -0.5% | ||||
18 | 18 | 13 | 196 | 3,430 | 5.7% | 0.2% | ||||
18 | 18 | 15 | 171 | 3,430 | 5.0% | -0.6% | ||||
18 | 18 | 17 | 164 | 3,430 | 4.8% | -0.8% | ||||
18 | 18 | 2 | 172 | 3,430 | 5.0% | -0.5% | ||||
18 | 18 | 4 | 222 | 3,430 | 6.5% | 0.9% | ||||
18 | 18 | 6 | 195 | 3,430 | 5.7% | 0.1% | ||||
18 | 18 | 8 | 179 | 3,430 | 5.2% | -0.3% | ||||
18 | 18 | 10 | 202 | 3,430 | 5.9% | 0.3% | ||||
18 | 18 | 12 | 204 | 3,430 | 5.9% | 0.4% | ||||
18 | 18 | 14 | 202 | 3,430 | 5.9% | 0.3% | ||||
18 | 18 | 16 | 197 | 3,430 | 5.7% | 0.2% | ||||
18 | 18 | 18 | 178 | 3,430 | 5.2% | -0.4% | ||||
13 | 13 | 1 | 126 | 1,570 | 8.0% | 0.3% | 113 | 1,648 | 6.9% | -0.8% |
13 | 13 | 3 | 95 | 1,570 | 6.1% | -1.6% | 115 | 1,648 | 7.0% | -0.7% |
13 | 13 | 5 | 123 | 1,570 | 7.8% | 0.1% | 139 | 1,648 | 8.4% | 0.7% |
13 | 13 | 7 | 140 | 1,570 | 8.9% | 1.2% | 125 | 1,648 | 7.6% | -0.1% |
13 | 13 | 9 | 128 | 1,570 | 8.2% | 0.5% | 116 | 1,648 | 7.0% | -0.7% |
13 | 13 | 11 | 118 | 1,570 | 7.5% | -0.2% | 126 | 1,648 | 7.6% | 0.0% |
13 | 13 | 13 | 106 | 1,570 | 6.8% | -0.9% | 148 | 1,648 | 9.0% | 1.3% |
13 | 13 | 2 | 136 | 1,570 | 8.7% | 1.0% | 121 | 1,648 | 7.3% | -0.4% |
13 | 13 | 4 | 133 | 1,570 | 8.5% | 0.8% | 134 | 1,648 | 8.1% | 0.4% |
13 | 13 | 6 | 115 | 1,570 | 7.3% | -0.4% | 122 | 1,648 | 7.4% | -0.3% |
13 | 13 | 8 | 120 | 1,570 | 7.6% | 0.0% | 133 | 1,648 | 8.1% | 0.4% |
13 | 13 | 10 | 117 | 1,570 | 7.5% | -0.2% | 118 | 1,648 | 7.2% | -0.5% |
13 | 13 | 12 | 115 | 1,570 | 7.3% | -0.4% | 140 | 1,648 | 8.5% | 0.8% |
15 | 15 | 1 | 89 | 1,450 | 6.1% | -0.5% | 204 | 3,287 | 6.2% | -0.5% |
15 | 15 | 3 | 97 | 1,450 | 6.7% | 0.0% | 188 | 3,287 | 5.7% | -0.9% |
15 | 15 | 5 | 86 | 1,450 | 5.9% | -0.7% | 203 | 3,287 | 6.2% | -0.5% |
15 | 15 | 7 | 97 | 1,450 | 6.7% | 0.0% | 201 | 3,287 | 6.1% | -0.6% |
15 | 15 | 9 | 83 | 1,450 | 5.7% | -0.9% | 221 | 3,287 | 6.7% | 0.1% |
15 | 15 | 11 | 108 | 1,450 | 7.4% | 0.8% | 214 | 3,287 | 6.5% | -0.2% |
15 | 15 | 13 | 80 | 1,450 | 5.5% | -1.1% | 247 | 3,287 | 7.5% | 0.8% |
15 | 15 | 15 | 80 | 1,450 | 5.5% | -1.1% | 242 | 3,287 | 7.4% | 0.7% |
15 | 15 | 2 | 123 | 1,450 | 8.5% | 1.8% | 188 | 3,287 | 5.7% | -0.9% |
15 | 15 | 4 | 102 | 1,450 | 7.0% | 0.4% | 197 | 3,287 | 6.0% | -0.7% |
15 | 15 | 6 | 104 | 1,450 | 7.2% | 0.5% | 229 | 3,287 | 7.0% | 0.3% |
15 | 15 | 8 | 93 | 1,450 | 6.4% | -0.3% | 231 | 3,287 | 7.0% | 0.4% |
15 | 15 | 10 | 105 | 1,450 | 7.2% | 0.6% | 254 | 3,287 | 7.7% | 1.1% |
15 | 15 | 12 | 106 | 1,450 | 7.3% | 0.6% | 232 | 3,287 | 7.1% | 0.4% |
15 | 15 | 14 | 99 | 1,450 | 6.8% | 0.2% | 241 | 3,287 | 7.3% | 0.7% |
17 | 17 | 1 | 42 | 687 | 6.1% | 0.2% | ||||
17 | 17 | 3 | 38 | 687 | 5.5% | -0.4% | ||||
17 | 17 | 5 | 42 | 687 | 6.1% | 0.2% | ||||
17 | 17 | 7 | 36 | 687 | 5.2% | -0.6% | ||||
17 | 17 | 9 | 34 | 687 | 4.9% | -0.9% | ||||
17 | 17 | 11 | 43 | 687 | 6.3% | 0.4% | ||||
17 | 17 | 13 | 33 | 687 | 4.8% | -1.1% | ||||
17 | 17 | 15 | 37 | 687 | 5.4% | -0.5% | ||||
17 | 17 | 17 | 33 | 687 | 4.8% | -1.1% | ||||
17 | 17 | 2 | 49 | 687 | 7.1% | 1.3% | ||||
17 | 17 | 4 | 37 | 687 | 5.4% | -0.5% | ||||
17 | 17 | 6 | 44 | 687 | 6.4% | 0.5% | ||||
17 | 17 | 8 | 48 | 687 | 7.0% | 1.1% | ||||
17 | 17 | 10 | 51 | 687 | 7.4% | 1.5% | ||||
17 | 17 | 12 | 40 | 687 | 5.8% | -0.1% | ||||
17 | 17 | 14 | 42 | 687 | 6.1% | 0.2% | ||||
17 | 17 | 16 | 39 | 687 | 5.7% | -0.2% |
(図表465-2)勝率と支持率
出走頭数 | 馬番設定頭数 | 馬番 | 芝勝率再掲 | 芝支持率 | ダ勝率再掲 | ダ支持率 |
12 | 12 | 1 | 9.20% | 8.40% | 6.60% | 8.10% |
12 | 12 | 3 | 8.30% | 8.40% | 7.50% | 8.30% |
12 | 12 | 5 | 6.90% | 8.20% | 7.40% | 8.00% |
12 | 12 | 7 | 7.80% | 8.60% | 7.80% | 8.50% |
12 | 12 | 9 | 9.60% | 8.30% | 8.50% | 8.50% |
12 | 12 | 11 | 8.10% | 8.60% | 8.80% | 8.40% |
12 | 12 | 2 | 8.30% | 8.50% | 8.30% | 7.80% |
12 | 12 | 4 | 8.00% | 8.60% | 8.70% | 8.30% |
12 | 12 | 6 | 9.20% | 8.60% | 8.30% | 8.20% |
12 | 12 | 8 | 8.20% | 8.10% | 9.60% | 8.80% |
12 | 12 | 10 | 8.70% | 7.90% | 9.20% | 8.80% |
12 | 12 | 12 | 8.20% | 8.00% | 9.40% | 8.90% |
14 | 14 | 1 | 7.20% | 7.40% | 6.90% | 7.30% |
14 | 14 | 3 | 8.00% | 7.60% | 6.60% | 7.10% |
14 | 14 | 5 | 7.00% | 7.40% | 5.90% | 7.30% |
14 | 14 | 7 | 7.80% | 7.10% | 7.10% | 7.40% |
14 | 14 | 9 | 6.40% | 7.00% | 6.70% | 6.80% |
14 | 14 | 11 | 6.00% | 6.90% | 6.60% | 7.00% |
14 | 14 | 13 | 6.50% | 6.70% | 8.10% | 7.50% |
14 | 14 | 2 | 8.70% | 7.50% | 6.60% | 7.00% |
14 | 14 | 4 | 6.70% | 7.20% | 8.00% | 7.00% |
14 | 14 | 6 | 7.60% | 7.40% | 7.10% | 7.00% |
14 | 14 | 8 | 8.40% | 7.30% | 7.00% | 7.50% |
14 | 14 | 10 | 6.00% | 7.00% | 7.80% | 7.20% |
14 | 14 | 12 | 7.40% | 7.20% | 7.80% | 6.90% |
14 | 14 | 14 | 6.50% | 6.50% | 7.90% | 7.40% |
16 | 16 | 1 | 6.30% | 6.70% | 5.80% | 6.20% |
16 | 16 | 3 | 6.20% | 6.50% | 5.80% | 6.20% |
16 | 16 | 5 | 6.30% | 6.40% | 5.60% | 6.20% |
16 | 16 | 7 | 5.40% | 6.30% | 6.00% | 6.30% |
16 | 16 | 9 | 6.20% | 6.30% | 6.20% | 6.30% |
16 | 16 | 11 | 6.00% | 6.20% | 6.40% | 6.20% |
16 | 16 | 13 | 5.80% | 6.00% | 6.00% | 6.20% |
16 | 16 | 15 | 5.70% | 5.90% | 6.40% | 6.40% |
16 | 16 | 2 | 7.00% | 6.70% | 6.20% | 6.10% |
16 | 16 | 4 | 7.20% | 6.60% | 6.30% | 6.30% |
16 | 16 | 6 | 6.90% | 6.50% | 6.10% | 6.20% |
16 | 16 | 8 | 6.50% | 6.30% | 6.40% | 6.40% |
16 | 16 | 10 | 6.30% | 6.40% | 6.70% | 6.40% |
16 | 16 | 12 | 6.40% | 6.20% | 6.90% | 6.50% |
16 | 16 | 14 | 6.00% | 5.80% | 6.20% | 6.30% |
16 | 16 | 16 | 5.80% | 5.80% | 7.00% | 6.40% |
18 | 18 | 1 | 6.20% | 5.70% | ||
18 | 18 | 3 | 5.30% | 5.60% | ||
18 | 18 | 5 | 6.20% | 5.70% | ||
18 | 18 | 7 | 5.80% | 5.60% | ||
18 | 18 | 9 | 5.20% | 5.70% | ||
18 | 18 | 11 | 5.00% | 5.50% | ||
18 | 18 | 13 | 5.70% | 5.50% | ||
18 | 18 | 15 | 5.00% | 5.70% | ||
18 | 18 | 17 | 4.80% | 5.10% | ||
18 | 18 | 2 | 5.00% | 5.50% | ||
18 | 18 | 4 | 6.50% | 5.80% | ||
18 | 18 | 6 | 5.70% | 5.80% | ||
18 | 18 | 8 | 5.20% | 5.50% | ||
18 | 18 | 10 | 5.90% | 5.60% | ||
18 | 18 | 12 | 5.90% | 5.70% | ||
18 | 18 | 14 | 5.90% | 5.60% | ||
18 | 18 | 16 | 5.70% | 5.50% | ||
18 | 18 | 18 | 5.20% | 5.50% | ||
13 | 13 | 1 | 8.00% | 7.80% | 6.90% | 7.90% |
13 | 13 | 3 | 6.10% | 7.40% | 7.00% | 8.10% |
13 | 13 | 5 | 7.80% | 7.80% | 8.40% | 7.50% |
13 | 13 | 7 | 8.90% | 8.20% | 7.60% | 7.70% |
13 | 13 | 9 | 8.20% | 7.70% | 7.00% | 7.40% |
13 | 13 | 11 | 7.50% | 7.40% | 7.60% | 7.50% |
13 | 13 | 13 | 6.80% | 7.60% | 9.00% | 8.30% |
13 | 13 | 2 | 8.70% | 8.40% | 7.30% | 7.50% |
13 | 13 | 4 | 8.50% | 7.70% | 8.10% | 7.90% |
13 | 13 | 6 | 7.30% | 7.80% | 7.40% | 7.60% |
13 | 13 | 8 | 7.60% | 7.40% | 8.10% | 7.90% |
13 | 13 | 10 | 7.50% | 7.60% | 7.20% | 7.40% |
13 | 13 | 12 | 7.30% | 7.50% | 8.50% | 7.80% |
15 | 15 | 1 | 6.10% | 6.40% | 6.20% | 6.70% |
15 | 15 | 3 | 6.70% | 6.40% | 5.70% | 6.50% |
15 | 15 | 5 | 5.90% | 7.00% | 6.20% | 6.70% |
15 | 15 | 7 | 6.70% | 7.10% | 6.10% | 6.60% |
15 | 15 | 9 | 5.70% | 6.80% | 6.70% | 6.60% |
15 | 15 | 11 | 7.40% | 6.50% | 6.50% | 6.80% |
15 | 15 | 13 | 5.50% | 6.20% | 7.50% | 6.80% |
15 | 15 | 15 | 5.50% | 5.80% | 7.40% | 6.90% |
15 | 15 | 2 | 8.50% | 6.90% | 5.70% | 6.50% |
15 | 15 | 4 | 7.00% | 7.20% | 6.00% | 6.40% |
15 | 15 | 6 | 7.20% | 7.40% | 7.00% | 6.80% |
15 | 15 | 8 | 6.40% | 6.40% | 7.00% | 6.80% |
15 | 15 | 10 | 7.20% | 6.60% | 7.70% | 6.90% |
15 | 15 | 12 | 7.30% | 6.60% | 7.10% | 6.70% |
15 | 15 | 14 | 6.80% | 6.80% | 7.30% | 6.80% |
17 | 17 | 1 | 6.10% | 6.20% | ||
17 | 17 | 3 | 5.50% | 6.00% | ||
17 | 17 | 5 | 6.10% | 6.50% | ||
17 | 17 | 7 | 5.20% | 5.80% | ||
17 | 17 | 9 | 4.90% | 6.30% | ||
17 | 17 | 11 | 6.30% | 5.90% | ||
17 | 17 | 13 | 4.80% | 5.90% | ||
17 | 17 | 15 | 5.40% | 5.40% | ||
17 | 17 | 17 | 4.80% | 5.40% | ||
17 | 17 | 2 | 7.10% | 6.10% | ||
17 | 17 | 4 | 5.40% | 6.10% | ||
17 | 17 | 6 | 6.40% | 5.70% | ||
17 | 17 | 8 | 7.00% | 6.20% | ||
17 | 17 | 10 | 7.40% | 6.10% | ||
17 | 17 | 12 | 5.80% | 5.50% | ||
17 | 17 | 14 | 6.10% | 5.70% | ||
17 | 17 | 16 | 5.70% | 5.60% |